Browse by publication topic: forecasting and modelling

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  1. 18 March 2013

    The New Zealand economy is recovering gradually, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts. Economic growth will average 2.5% over the next three years. The Canterbury rebuild will be a key driver, though it will be more protracted than previously thought.

  2. 26 February 2013
  3. 17 December 2012

    The New Zealand economy is recovering gradually, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts. Economic growth will average 2.5% over the next three years. The Canterbury rebuild will be a key driver, though it will be more protracted than previously thought.

  4. 20 November 2012

    Tourism is one of New Zealand's largest income earners. In the second half of 2012, NZIER were contracted by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment to produce model-based tourism forecasts and a report that shows the key economic drivers of the forecasts across 2012-18.

  5. 24 October 2012

    The NZIER Shadow Board, an independent group which aims to promote informed debate about interest rate decisions, is increasingly looking to a rate cut to boost flagging economic activity, said Dr Kirdan Lees, NZIER’s Head of Public Good Research.

  6. 17 September 2012

    The economic recovery continues, but it will be a little more protracted than previously thought, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts. Economic growth will average 2.6% over the next three years. The Canterbury rebuild will be a key driver of activity, and households and exports will contribute modestly.

  7. 30 May 2012
  8. 18 March 2012

    The recovery will be shallower than previously thought, according to the NZIER Consensus Forecasts. The economy will still grow; accelerating from 1.8% in the year ending March 2012 to 3.2% by 2014.

  9. 12 December 2011

    The recovery will slower than previously thought, according to the NZIER Consensus Forecasts. But the economy will still grow: 2.2% in the year ending March 2012 and then accelerate to 3.0% in 2013 and 2014. The Canterbury reconstruction will be a key driver, with the rest of the economy growing more modestly, averaging 2.2% over the next three years.

  10. 19 October 2011

    NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) contains a 50 year history of business opinion. While its predictive capabilities are well known, there are many more applications that can be pursued using QSBO data. This paper investigates one application, using the QSBO to forecast GDP and inflation up to four quarters ahead of official data releases.

  11. 04 October 2011

    Forecast - New Zealand trends in property and construction. Prepared by NZIER exclusively for Rider Levett Bucknall.

  12. 19 September 2011

    Economists expect resilience despite global risks. New Zealand economists on average believe the economy is set to recover, in part due to reconstruction of Canterbury. Global fears do not appear to have impacted on New Zealand economists’ expectations much as yet. Economic growth forecasts have been revised up a touch for the next two years, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts Survey. Economic growth will accelerate from 1.5% in the year ending March 2011 to 2.6% in 2012 and 3.7% in 2013. The Canterbury reconstruction will be the major driver, with a more modest recovery elsewhere.

  13. 19 July 2011

    Forecast - New Zealand trends in property and construction. Prepared by NZIER exclusively for Rider Levett Bucknall.

  14. 05 May 2011

    NZIER used its dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the potential impacts of a successful Red Meat Strategy on the New Zealand economy. We found that the on-farm and processing productivity improvements envisioned by the Strategy, as well as land use shifts and consumer preference changes in export markets, would lead to a GDP increase of 1.3% by 2025.

    Link to report (Meat Industry Association of New Zealand website).

  15. 21 March 2011

    Earthquake delays recovery until 2013

    Economic forecasters believe the past year was weaker than previously thought, and the recovery has been delayed due mainly to the second Canterbury earthquake, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts Survey.

  16. 04 February 2011

    Forecast - New Zealand trends in property and construction. Prepared by NZIER exclusively for Rider Levett Bucknall.

  17. 16 November 2010

    NZIER modelled the facility and workforce supply response to the projected increase in demand for aged residential care out to 2026. The modelling results are reported in the Grant Thornton review jointly commissioned by NZ Aged Care Association and 20 District Health Boards.

  18. 12 November 2010

    Increasing New Zealand's saving rate -  a preliminary dynamic CGE analysis

    This paper uses NZIER’s dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy to conduct a preliminary investigation into how an increase in New Zealand’s national savings would affect New Zealand’s GDP and living standards. We do not specify how this increase might take place. We find that increased saving would reduce our overseas debt and thus cut our debt servicingrepayments. It is likely that the risk premium on borrowing costs would also fall under such a scenario. This would help boost investment.

  19. 04 October 2010
  20. 21 September 2010

    Sill positive, but less rosy economic outlook

  21. 15 September 2010
  22. 05 July 2010
  23. 22 June 2010
  24. 31 May 2010
  25. 06 April 2010