Browse by publication topic: forecasting and modelling

Tourism is one of New Zealand's largest income earners. In the second half of 2012, NZIER were contracted by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment to produce model-based tourism forecasts and a report that shows the key economic drivers of the forecasts across 2012-18.

The economic recovery continues, but it will be a little more protracted than previously thought, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts. Economic growth will average 2.6% over the next three years. The Canterbury rebuild will be a key driver of activity, and households and exports will contribute modestly.

The recovery will be shallower than previously thought, according to the NZIER Consensus Forecasts. The economy will still grow; accelerating from 1.8% in the year ending March 2012 to 3.2% by 2014.

NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) contains a 50 year history of business opinion. While its predictive capabilities are well known, there are many more applications that can be pursued using QSBO data. This paper investigates one application, using the QSBO to forecast GDP and inflation up to four quarters ahead of official data releases.

Economists expect resilience despite global risks. New Zealand economists on average believe the economy is set to recover, in part due to reconstruction of Canterbury. Global fears do not appear to have impacted on New Zealand economists’ expectations much as yet. Economic growth forecasts have been revised up a touch for the next two years, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts Survey. Economic growth will accelerate from 1.5% in the year ending March 2011 to 2.6% in 2012 and 3.7% in 2013. The Canterbury reconstruction will be the major driver, with a more modest recovery elsewhere.

NZIER used its dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the potential impacts of a successful Red Meat Strategy on the New Zealand economy. We found that the on-farm and processing productivity improvements envisioned by the Strategy, as well as land use shifts and consumer preference changes in export markets, would lead to a GDP increase of 1.3% by 2025.

Link to report (Meat Industry Association of New Zealand website).

Forecast - New Zealand trends in property and construction. Prepared by NZIER exclusively for Rider Levett Bucknall.

Increasing New Zealand's saving rate -  a preliminary dynamic CGE analysis

This paper uses NZIER’s dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy to conduct a preliminary investigation into how an increase in New Zealand’s national savings would affect New Zealand’s GDP and living standards. We do not specify how this increase might take place. We find that increased saving would reduce our overseas debt and thus cut our debt servicingrepayments. It is likely that the risk premium on borrowing costs would also fall under such a scenario. This would help boost investment.

Sill positive, but less rosy economic outlook