Browse by publication type

A more consistent approach to valuing natural assets would help decision-makers increase the efficiency of use of our natural resources, says NZIER.

To the Local Government and Environment Committee, 28 February 2013.

Each year NZIER devotes some of its resources to undertake and make freely available economic research and thinking aimed at promoting a better understanding of New Zealand’s important economic challenges. The preparation of this submission was funded from those resources.

“The NZIER Shadow Board says keep the official cash rate at 2.50 percent,” said Dr Kirdan Lees, Head of Public Good Research at NZIER. “The economy grew very strongly at the end of last year and recent confidence indicators, like NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, show continued optimism.”

New Zealand businesses need to start making changes to prepare for major structural shifts in how firms will do things over the coming decades. NZIER predicts the ageing New Zealand population will see fewer productive workers in proportion to the number of retirees which will drive up wages. Firms need to prepare. “These are global issues but the sooner New Zealand businesses plan for these coming changes the better,” Dr Lees says.

The New Zealand economy is recovering gradually, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts. Economic growth will average 2.5% over the next three years. The Canterbury rebuild will be a key driver, though it will be more protracted than previously thought.

As part of the East Coast oil and gas Development study, NZIER was commissioned by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment to do an economic study of the national and regional impacts of the potential development scenarios. Link to report.

In 30 years’ time New Zealanders will be choosing to retire at least three years later than we do now. Living longer means working longer. We will want to save more for our retirement as our life expectancy increases. Working longer will also be more attractive as an ageing population will drive up wages. In NZIER’s latest research paper, we quantify the impact of an ageing population on future wages and interest rates, and people's savings and retirement decisions.

“The NZIER Shadow Board says holding the official cash rate at 2.50 percent is the right call,” said Dr Kirdan Lees, Head of Public Good Research at NZIER.” “Inflation is at historical lows, tempered by a high exchange rate and weak household demand that means firms are struggling to pass on cost increases. The economic recovery has little momentum and unemployment remains high. In most areas of the economy, there is ample spare capacity.”

The New Zealand economy is recovering gradually, according to the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts. Economic growth will average 2.5% over the next three years. The Canterbury rebuild will be a key driver, though it will be more protracted than previously thought.

NZIER is a member of the Research Institutes Network (RIN), represented by Professor Gary Hawke. RIN consists of research institutes from 16 East Asia Summit countries (see http://www.eria.org/). RIN recently released a statement supporting the commencement of negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and outlining the design features RCEP should have if it is to be as effective as possible. This agreement has the potential to improve living standards across the East Asia region, including in New Zealand. Also see NZIER Insight 38.

ExportNZ commissioned NZIER to provide an independent view on options for New Zealand firms, business organisations and government to boost export growth. While ExportNZ posed the question, the views contained in this report are those of NZIER.

Hosting large events like the Rugby World Cup are expensive undertakings. That makes value-for-money evaluation critical. But most impact event analysis doesn’t stack up, missing displacement effects. It means benefits are often far smaller than people think.